Limited impacts of storms on mid-Atlantic coastal forests

Coastal forests are increasingly threatened by long-term sea-level rise (SLR) and episodic storms, with forest mortality creating striking “ghost forests” surrounded by marshes. While SLR is widely recognized as a chronic stressor that gradually displaces forests, storms are hypothesized to act as acute disturbances necessary to trigger abrupt forest retreat. To evaluate the role of storms in coastal forest dynamics, we analyzed a 37-year (1984–2020) Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset as a proxy for forest health across the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, a region characterized by rapid SLR, frequent storm-induced flooding, and extensive ghost forest expansion. We find that storm-induced high-water level events exert limited impacts on mid-Atlantic coastal forests, with NDVI variability instead predominantly governed by climate factors such as drought and temperature. These findings challenge a common assumption that storms are primary agents of abrupt coastal forest loss and underscore the central role of climate variability in shaping coastal forest resilience.